---
title: "United States dependence on Middle Eastern oil imports over time"
analysis_id: "ou4kQmvLPiJ4p6CNuwVx"
model: accounts/fireworks/models/kimi-k2p6
success: true
---

# Data analysis: United States dependence on Middle Eastern oil imports over time

Model: Kimi K2.6
Checked on: 21/09/2026

## Findings

Based on OECD Balanced International Merchandise Trade Statistics (BIMTS)[^1], I analysed mirror-trade data—Middle Eastern exports to the United States—to track US dependence on mineral-fuel supplies from the region over time. The product category used is HS 27 (mineral fuels, mineral oils and products of their distillation), which captures crude oil, refined products and related hydrocarbons.

**Key findings**

- **Peak dependence was around 2012–2014.** Middle Eastern exports to the US accounted for roughly 21 % of all world mineral-fuel exports to the US in 2012, valued at about $87 billion out of a $415 billion total.
- **Dependence has fallen sharply since then.** By 2024 the share dropped to about 9 % ($22 billion out of $242 billion).
- **Saudi Arabia has consistently been the largest supplier**, followed by Iraq as a significant secondary source. Iranian shipments are effectively absent from the data in recent decades because of sanctions.
- The decline mirrors the broader trend of the US reducing its reliance on imported oil, partly driven by the growth of domestic shale production.

**Trends over time**

| Year | World exports to US ($ bn) | Middle East exports to US ($ bn) | Middle East share (%) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1995 | 61.7 | 9.6 | 15.6 |
| 2005 | 292.0 | 44.3 | 15.2 |
| 2008 | 480.7 | 84.2 | 17.5 |
| 2012 | 415.1 | 87.2 | 21.0 |
| 2016 | 156.7 | 27.0 | 17.2 |
| 2020 | 123.9 | 12.3 | 9.9 |
| 2024 | 242.2 | 21.8 | 9.0 |

**Visual summary**

The first chart shows total US mineral-fuel imports from the Middle East versus total world exports to the US (the mirror of US imports), illustrating the post-2012 decline.

The second chart plots the Middle Eastern share, highlighting the peak around 2012–2014 and the subsequent drop to roughly 9–11 % in recent years.

The third chart breaks the Middle East total down by country, confirming Saudi Arabia’s dominance and Iraq’s importance, while Iranian volumes have disappeared from the trade record.

**Caveats**

- The data are reported by exporting (Middle Eastern) countries rather than by the US directly, so they reflect partner-country records of shipments to the US.
- The values are in current US dollars, meaning the shares can be affected by oil-price swings as well as by physical-volume changes.
- HS 27 is broader than crude oil alone; it also includes refined products, coal-derived fuels and certain gases. For Middle Eastern suppliers, however, petroleum dominates this category.

[^1]:
    [OECD dataset: Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-2D](https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?lc=en&df%5Bds%5D=dsDisseminateFinalDMZ&df%5Bid%5D=DSD_BIMTS%40DF_BIMTS_HS2017_2D&df%5Bag%5D=OECD.SDD.TPS)