Based on my investigation of South Africa's refinery situation, here is my analysis of the claim:

Reasoning:

• South Africa has indeed lost significant refining capacity. At the start of 2020, the country had six refineries; three have closed permanently, and others have faced extended shutdowns¹².

• The claim that "lack of capital" caused these closures is partially accurate but incomplete. Multiple refineries closed specifically because owners were unwilling or unable to invest the capital required for upgrades:

  • Sapref (South Africa's largest refinery, contributing 35% of capacity) cited "large amounts of capital" needed for repairs after 2022 flood damage³
  • Clean fuel regulations (CF2 standards) required billions in upgrades - R45 billion for Natref alone, which Sasol and TotalEnergies indicated would make operations unsustainable¹
  • The refineries were described as "small, old and inefficient" requiring substantial investment to remain viable⁴

• However, the claim is oversimplified because other factors also contributed significantly:

  • 2022 flood damage to Sapref was an immediate trigger³
  • New cleaner fuels specifications mandated by government created the capital requirements⁴
  • Age of infrastructure (some built in the 1960s)³
  • Environmental concerns and community opposition³

• The government itself acknowledged financial constraints, with sources noting "there seems to be little prospect of security of supply being resolved soon" due to "South Africa's increasingly constrained finances"⁴

Overall validity: 75%

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