Claim: Dai Ato's paper tested sea surface temperature as a predictor of the annual increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration from 1959 to 2022
95%Based on my research, I can verify the claim:
Verification of the claim:
- Dai Ato is a real researcher - The paper was authored by Dai Ato, identified as an "Independent researcher, Osaka, Japan" with ORCID: 0000-0002-6049-503912
- The paper was published in "Science of Climate Change" (Volume 4.2, published August 16, 2024)21
- The paper title is "Multivariate Analysis Rejects the Theory of Human-caused Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Increase: The Sea Surface Temperature Rules"2
- The study period was indeed 1959 to 2022 - The paper explicitly states it analyzed data starting from 1959, with predictions showing a 1.45 ppm difference in 202221
- Sea surface temperature was tested as a predictor - The study used multiple linear regression analysis with annual changes in atmospheric CO₂ as the objective variable and SST (from NASA, UK-Hadley Centre, and UAH datasets) and human emissions as explanatory factors12
- The paper claims SST is a strong predictor - The paper found that the model using SST "best represented the annual CO₂ increase" with high correlation (r = 0.9995 for HAD-SST from 1960)21
Important context:
- This is a single paper with conclusions that contradict the overwhelming consensus in climate science that human fossil fuel emissions are the primary driver of atmospheric CO₂ increases
- The journal "Science of Climate Change" is a relatively new not-for-profit independent journal, not a mainstream climate science publication
- The Chief Editor is Prof. H. Harde, who has published skeptical views on anthropogenic climate change
- The author's conclusions that "human CO₂ emissions were irrelevant" and "atmospheric CO₂ has fluctuated as natural phenomenon, regardless of human activity" represent a minority/fringe view in climate science
Overall validity: 95%