Claim: Polymarket odds for maritime traffic returning to normal by April 30 have crashed

This claim is ACCURATE.

Reasoning:

• On April 8, 2026, Polymarket showed a 57% probability that Strait of Hormuz traffic would return to normal by April 30¹
• By April 10, 2026, this probability had plummeted to just 22%²
• Current Polymarket data shows an 81.5% implied probability AGAINST traffic normalizing by April 30, meaning the "Yes" odds have effectively crashed to approximately 18.5%
• The crash was driven by persistent post-ceasefire disruptions keeping daily vessel transits at just 7-20 vessels versus the typical 100-140 merchant ships (less than 10% of pre-crisis levels)²
• The 7-day moving average of transit calls required for a "Yes" outcome is 60 ships, which has not been achieved despite ongoing peace talks and sporadic reopenings[extracted]

Overall validity: 95%

1. Polymarket Predicts 57% Chance of Normalized Hormuz Traffic
2. Polymarket Predicts 22% Chance of Normal Strait of Hormuz Traffic by April End