Veria - Claim Fact Check

Claim: Research by Dai Ato claims that human emissions are not driving atmospheric carbon dioxide levels

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Analysis of the claim:

Dai Ato is an independent researcher from Japan who has published papers claiming that sea surface temperature (SST), not human emissions, is the primary driver of atmospheric CO₂ increases¹²³. His research uses multivariate analysis to argue that SST is the "independent determinant" of annual CO₂ increases while claiming human emissions were "irrelevant"²³.
However, Ato's papers were published in "Science of Climate Change" journal, which Science Feedback found is not indexed in credible scientific databases such as SCImago, Web of Science, or Index Copernicus⁴. This indicates it lacks recognition as a credible scientific journal.
The journal is published by the "Norwegian Climate Realists," an organization dedicated to opposing climate science⁴. The journal openly states its objective is to publish papers that "contradict the often very unilateral climate hypotheses of the IPCC," indicating clear bias rather than objective scientific inquiry⁴.
The journal has also published papers that were created using AI (Grok 3), with authors editing the AI-generated content rather than conducting original research⁴.
The overwhelming scientific consensus—supported by greater than 99% of peer-reviewed climate science literature and major scientific organizations including NASA, AAAS, AGU, and the American Chemical Society—is that human emissions of CO₂ ARE driving atmospheric CO₂ levels⁵⁶. Data from NOAA clearly shows atmospheric CO₂ levels have increased in direct correlation with human emissions since the Industrial Revolution⁵.
Ato's analysis appears to conflate natural feedback mechanisms (where warming oceans can release some CO₂) with the primary cause of the long-term CO₂ increase. While temperature and CO₂ are correlated, the causal relationship is well-established: human emissions cause CO₂ increases, which then cause warming—not the reverse as Ato suggests⁵.
Natural carbon sinks (oceans and plants) absorb about half of human CO₂ emissions, but the remaining half accumulates in the atmosphere, causing the observed rise⁵.

Overall validity: 5%