Claim: Oceans determine the pace of atmospheric carbon dioxide level increases according to Dai Ato's research
20%Based on my research, I can verify the claim and provide context about its scientific validity.
Reasoning:
- Dai Ato is an independent researcher from Japan who published a paper titled "Multivariate Analysis Rejects the Theory of Human-caused Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Increase: The Sea Surface Temperature Rules" in 202412.
- In this research, Ato conducted multivariate regression analysis comparing sea surface temperature (SST) and human CO₂ emissions as explanatory factors for atmospheric CO₂ changes2.
- He concluded that SST was the "independent determinant of the annual increase in atmospheric CO₂ concentration" and claimed that "human CO₂ emissions were irrelevant"2.
However, this research contradicts the overwhelming scientific consensus:
- The established scientific consensus, supported by multiple studies, shows that 97-98% of actively publishing climate scientists agree that human activities, particularly fossil fuel burning, are the primary cause of increasing atmospheric CO₂ levels34.
- The oceans actually act as a carbon sink that absorbs approximately 25% of human CO₂ emissions, not as a net source of CO₂ to the atmosphere5.
- While ocean warming can cause some CO₂ outgassing as a feedback effect, it is not the primary driver of the observed long-term CO₂ increase. The isotopic composition of atmospheric CO₂ (declining ¹³C/¹²C ratio) clearly indicates the source is fossil fuel carbon, not oceanic carbon.
Overall validity: 20%
Dai Ato did publish research making this claim, but the conclusion that oceans determine the pace of atmospheric CO₂ increases contradicts well-established climate science. The scientific consensus is that human fossil fuel emissions are the dominant driver of atmospheric CO₂ increases, while oceans absorb significant amounts of this excess CO₂.