---
title: "Russia controls 25 % of Ukrainian territory"
claim_id: "tlykJDr7LQYGoLxPS2JD"
validity: 20
model: accounts/fireworks/models/kimi-k2p6
---

# Claim: Russia controls 25 % of Ukrainian territory

Verdict: 20%
Model: Kimi K2.6
Checked on: 19/06/2026

## Verdict explanation

**Reasoning:**

- According to the Institute for the Study of War data analyzed by Russia Matters as of April 7, 2026, Russia presently controls approximately **20%** of Ukrainian territory (about 45,795 square miles), which includes Crimea and parts of Donbas that Russia occupied before its full-scale invasion in February 2022[^1].
- Russia's territorial control peaked at approximately **27%** in March 2022 shortly after the invasion began, but Ukrainian forces have since liberated significant territory, and the current figure has remained well below 25% for years[^2].
- In the weeks leading up to May 12, 2026, Russian forces experienced a net loss of 45 square miles of Ukrainian territory, further demonstrating that the control percentage is not approaching 25%[^3].
- The claim of 25% overstates the current extent of Russian occupation by roughly 5 percentage points, making it a substantial numerical inaccuracy for a present-day assessment.

**Overall validity**: 20%

[^1]:
    [The Russia-Ukraine War Report Card, April 8, 2026](https://www.russiamatters.org/news/russia-ukraine-war-report-card/russia-ukraine-war-report-card-april-8-2026)

[^2]:
    [Russian-occupied territories of Ukraine - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian-occupied_territories_of_Ukraine)

[^3]:
    [The Russia-Ukraine War Report Card, May 13, 2026](https://www.russiamatters.org/news/russia-ukraine-war-report-card/russia-ukraine-war-report-card-may-13-2026)

## Sources using this claim (1)

- ["Ukraine is winning", that's what they tell on western media. Here are the facts on Ukraine and you …](/source/x:Alex_Oloyede2:2067593884574572881) — 15% — 22 views