Deutsche Bank has developed an index to predict policy pivots by Donald Trump

Analysis of the claim:

• Deutsche Bank has developed the "TACO stress index" or "Pressure Index" to predict when President Trump might change his policy stance ¹²³.
• The index was created by Maximilian Uleer, Deutsche Bank's head of cross-asset strategy, and his team ²³¹⁴.
• "TACO" stands for "Trump Always Chickens Out", a term coined by a Financial Times editorial to describe Trump's pattern of escalating with theatrical threats then reversing course ²³¹.
• The index combines four key indicators: one-month change in Trump's approval ratings, one-year inflation expectations, S&P 500 performance, and US Treasury yields ⁵²⁴³.
• Uleer stated that when the index rises, "the probability of strategic adjustment by the US administration is more likely" and "if all four pain points hurt, the incentive to adjust is very high" ²¹.
• The Financial Times has referred to the index as a "simple and useful" tool for gauging pressure on the US president ¹.

Overall validity: 95%