---
title: "Deutsche Bank has developed an index to predict policy pivots by Donald Trump"
claim_id: "yLjbxJe9l1WUiOm4lDyv"
validity: 95
model: accounts/fireworks/models/kimi-k2p5
---

# Claim: Deutsche Bank has developed an index to predict policy pivots by Donald Trump

Verdict: 95%
Model: Kimi K2.5
Checked on: 20/04/2026

## Verdict explanation

**Analysis of the claim:**

- **Deutsche Bank has developed the "TACO stress index" or "Pressure Index"** to predict when President Trump might change his policy stance [^1][^2][^4].
- The index was created by **Maximilian Uleer**, Deutsche Bank's head of cross-asset strategy, and his team [^2][^4][^1][^5].
- **"TACO" stands for "Trump Always Chickens Out"**, a term coined by a Financial Times editorial to describe Trump's pattern of escalating with theatrical threats then reversing course [^2][^4][^1].
- The index combines four key indicators: **one-month change in Trump's approval ratings, one-year inflation expectations, S\&P 500 performance, and US Treasury yields** [^3][^2][^5][^4].
- Uleer stated that when the index rises, "the probability of strategic adjustment by the US administration is more likely" and "if all four pain points hurt, the incentive to adjust is very high" [^2][^1].
- The Financial Times has referred to the index as a "simple and useful" tool for gauging pressure on the US president [^1].

**Overall validity**: 95%

[^1]:
    [When will Trump ‘Taco’ next? The pressure index has the answer for you – Firstpost](https://www.firstpost.com/explainers/donald-trump-taco-moment-iran-war-pressure-index-deutsche-bank-13993799.html)

[^2]:
    [Now, A ‘Pressure Index’ To Predict Next 'TACO' By Trump: Here's How It Works | World News - News18](https://www.news18.com/world/deutsche-banks-pressure-index-signals-possible-taco-moment-for-trump-what-it-means-ws-l-9999013.html)

[^4]:
    [Financial analysts move to counter Trump’s Middle East war uncertainty with ‘TACO’ index - France 24](https://www.france24.com/en/economy/20260327-financial-analysts-move-to-counter-trump-middle-east-war-uncertainty-with-taco-index)

[^5]:
    [Deutsche Bank's Pressure Index: Tracking Trump's Decision-Making | Bob Weinstein posted on the topic | LinkedIn](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/bob4portland_deutsche-bank-has-quietly-built-a-model-designed-activity-7442979608590913537-dEmC)

[^3]:
    [Measuring Political Risk: A New Indicator for Market Turning Points](https://www.investing.com/analysis/measuring-political-risk-a-new-indicator-for-market-turning-points-200677517)

## Sources using this claim (1)

- [This is Wild. Deutsche Bank has developed an index that helps to predict the next TACO by Trump. It …](/source/x:nicrypto:2037073292000190946) — Unknown — 16 views