--- title: "President Cyril Ramaphosa has warned of significant fuel price increases set to …" source: "https://x.com/NewsunplugSA/status/2038543296738283966" platform: "X / Twitter" factual_accuracy: 97 overall_accuracy: null tags: ["fuel prices", "gasoline", "Cyril Ramaphosa", "South Africa", "oil prices", "Middle East", "geopolitics"] --- # Source fact-check: President Cyril Ramaphosa has warned of significant fuel price increases set to … Original post: https://x.com/NewsunplugSA/status/2038543296738283966 Factual accuracy: 97% · Overall accuracy: Unknown ## Source post **Target post by @NewsunplugSA** > President Cyril Ramaphosa has warned of significant fuel price increases set to hit South African motorists on Wednesday, 1 April 2026, largely due to escalating conflict in the Middle East that has pushed international oil prices well above $100 per barrel https://t.co/8VUyY3oW8b ## Post analysis Post analysis will start after all claims are evaluated. ## Claims found (5) ### 1. President Cyril Ramaphosa warned of significant fuel price increases — 100% Model: Kimi K2.5 · Checked on: 07/04/2026 · Detail: /claim/5lZ0KkNdYTwKCKbGaehN **Verification: ACCURATE** **Reasoning:** - President Cyril Ramaphosa publicly warned South Africans that petrol and diesel prices would increase from April 1, 2026, citing global conflicts as the primary driver[^2][^1]. - Speaking at the closing of the Limpopo ANC's 11th provincial conference, Ramaphosa stated: "By 1st of April, we're going to see prices of petrol and diesel going up, driven largely by the conflict that is going on"[^1]. - He attributed the increases to geopolitical tensions, specifically mentioning "the war in the Middle East and the ongoing conflict in Eastern Europe" as key factors affecting energy costs[^1]. - Ramaphosa directed government ministers to urgently find solutions and admitted he was "not sleeping at all because of this challenge" facing ordinary South Africans[^1]. - The Department of Petroleum and Mineral Resources subsequently confirmed the fuel price increases on March 31, 2026, with petrol rising by R3.06 per litre and diesel by up to R7.51 per litre[^3]. **Overall validity: 100%** [^2]: [Ramaphosa warns of fuel price hikes, orders ministers to ...](https://www.msn.com/en-za/news/other/ramaphosa-warns-of-fuel-price-hikes-orders-ministers-to-find-solutions/ar-AA1ZIlho?cvid=fd62357f5028493480466f7a51d1ba72&apiversion=v2&domshim=1&noservercache=1&noservertelemetry=1&batchservertelemetry=1&renderwebcomponents=1&wcseo=1) [^1]: [Ramaphosa warns of fuel price hikes, orders ministers to find solutions](https://iol.co.za/news/politics/2026-03-30-ramaphosa-warns-of-fuel-price-hikes-orders-ministers-to-find-solutions/) [^3]: [Petrol, diesel prices announced | SAnews](https://www.sanews.gov.za/south-africa/petrol-diesel-prices-announced) ### 2. Significant fuel price increases will hit South African motorists on Wednesday, 1 April 2026 — 100% Model: Kimi K2.5 · Checked on: 07/04/2026 · Detail: /claim/gPf0XjhHKIuTShVLAYLn **Analysis of the claim:** - The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources (DMPR) officially announced fuel price adjustments on Tuesday, March 31, 2026, to take effect on Wednesday, April 1, 2026[^1]. - Petrol prices will increase by R3.06 per litre for both 93 and 95 octane grades[^1]. - Diesel will see much larger increases of between R7.37 (500ppm) and R7.51 (50ppm) per litre[^1]. - Illuminating paraffin will increase by R11.67 per litre[^1]. - The increases are driven by international oil prices surging due to Middle East conflicts, with Brent Crude oil averaging around $94 per barrel during the review period (up from $69 in the preceding month)[^1]. - Despite these significant increases, the National Treasury implemented a temporary R3 tax reprieve for April to partially offset the impact[^1]. **Overall validity**: 100% [^1]: [Official fuel price increases announced: Here's what you'll pay ... - IOL](https://iol.co.za/motoring/industry-news/2026-03-31-official-fuel-price-increases-announced-heres-what-youll-pay-for-petrol-and-diesel-from-april-1/) ### 3. Escalating conflict in the Middle East is largely responsible for the fuel price increases — 90% Model: Kimi K2.5 · Checked on: 07/04/2026 · Detail: /claim/2395KGTLsQBi6MsMO3ga Based on my investigation, the claim has **strong factual support**. The evidence confirms that the escalating conflict in the Middle East, specifically the Iran war, is indeed largely responsible for recent fuel price increases. **Reasoning:** - Oil prices have surged dramatically since the Iran conflict began - Brent crude climbed from approximately $73 to $119 per barrel, representing a 65% increase[^8][^6], and front-month Brent futures hit a record monthly gain of 64% in March 2026[^3] - The conflict has removed roughly 10-11 million barrels per day from global markets due to supply disruptions[^8] - The Strait of Hormuz closure has created a physical chokepoint affecting approximately 20% of global oil supplies, taking offline significant production capacity[^5][^7] - U.S. gasoline prices have risen significantly - the national average reached roughly $3.98-$4.06 per gallon, up nearly $1 from a month ago and more than 17% since the start of U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran on February 28[^8][^4][^1] - Diesel prices at the pump have surged by 25% on average across the EU since the war began, with some countries seeing increases of 35% (Spain)[^6] - The EU's bill for imported fossil fuels has risen by €14 billion due to the conflict[^6] - EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen explicitly stated that even if peace were declared tomorrow, prices "will not go back to normal in the foreseeable future"[^6] **Other contributing factors:** While other factors like Russia's temporary gasoline export ban (April-July 2026)[^5], seasonal demand increases for summer driving[^1], and OPEC+ production decisions[^3][^2] are also affecting prices, the Middle East conflict is the primary driver of the dramatic recent price spikes. **Overall validity**: 90% [^8]: [Oil has surged since the Iran conflict, but gas prices ... - Fox Business](https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/oil-has-surged-since-iran-conflict-gas-prices-may-not-done-rising) [^6]: [Gasoline prices at gas stations across Europe are expected to rise sharply](/claim/rnk2OBzxIly5hk08gib9) [^3]: [Russia says OPEC+ monitoring panel is likely to discuss oil price rise](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-says-opec-monitoring-panel-is-likely-discuss-oil-price-rise-2026-04-01/) [^5]: [Russia Gasoline Export Ban Impact on Global Markets](https://discoveryalert.com.au/russia-gasoline-export-ban-2026-energy-crisis/) [^7]: [Why the oil and gas price shock from the Iran war won't just fade away](https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2026/3/23/why-the-oil-and-gas-price-shock-from-the-iran-war-wont-just-fade-away) [^4]: [Gas Prices Hit Records in 2026: State by State Breakdown](https://smartasset.com/data-studies/gas-prices-spring-2026) [^1]: [With war in Iran, experts predict higher gas prices and inflation](https://news.northeastern.edu/2026/03/10/oil-prices-iran-war/) [^2]: [Why OPEC plans to keep oil production flat to start 2026 - Marketplace](https://www.marketplace.org/story/2025/12/02/why-opec-plans-to-keep-oil-production-flat-to-start-2026) ### 4. Escalating conflict in the Middle East has pushed international oil prices well above $100 per barrel — 95% Model: Kimi K2.5 · Checked on: 07/04/2026 · Detail: /claim/C3OvlaCypRklJ7qijdd9 **Verdict: ACCURATE** **Reasoning:** - International oil benchmark Brent crude has risen above $100 per barrel for the first time in roughly four years due to escalating Middle East conflict[^1]. - Oil prices reached as high as $119.50 per barrel on March 8, 2026, following U.S. and Israeli military actions against Iran that began on February 28[^1]. - The international oil benchmark has remained above $100 per barrel since mid-March 2026, climbing from approximately $73 to $119 per barrel—a 65% increase[^3]. - The Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the world's oil normally moves, has been effectively closed for over a week, preventing Persian Gulf fuel from reaching overseas markets[^1]. - Prediction markets showed 100% probability that WTI crude would hit $100 during April 2026, indicating trader confidence that prices would remain elevated[^4]. - Analysts now view $100 as the "new floor" for oil prices in 2026 rather than a ceiling, with the market accepting triple-digit oil as normal[^2]. **Overall validity**: 95% [^1]: [Oil Prices Spike to Over $110 a Barrel, Highest Since Pandemic](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/08/business/energy-environment/oil-100-dollars-barrel.html) [^3]: [Gasoline prices at gas stations across Europe are expected to rise sharply](/claim/rnk2OBzxIly5hk08gib9) [^4]: [Will WTI Crude Oil Hit $100 in April 2026? - Lines.com](https://www.lines.com/prediction-markets/finance/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-april-2026) [^2]: [Why $100 Is the New Floor for Oil Prices in 2026 - FXEmpire](https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/why-100-is-the-new-floor-for-oil-prices-in-2026-1589972) ### 5. International oil prices are well above $100 per barrel — 100% Model: Kimi K2.5 · Checked on: 07/04/2026 · Detail: /claim/xMLnocPWYSPgQZijTTvH ##### Verification Analysis **Finding:** The claim that international oil prices are well above $100 per barrel is **ACCURATE**. **Reasoning:** - As of April 1, 2026, Brent crude oil was priced at $104.86 per barrel[^1][^4]. - By April 3, 2026, prices rose to $112.42 per barrel[^6]. - On April 6, 2026, oil was trading at $111.25 per barrel[^2]. - The most recent data from April 7, 2026, shows crude oil at $115.36 USD per barrel, up 2.63% from the previous day[^5]. - Brent crude prices have remained above $100 per barrel since mid-March 2026, climbing from approximately $73 to $119 per barrel—a 65% increase due to factors including the Iran war and supply concerns[^3]. - Oil prices have increased approximately 93.62% compared to the same time last year[^5]. Multiple independent sources confirm that international benchmark oil prices (Brent crude) have consistently traded well above the $100 per barrel threshold throughout early April 2026. **Overall validity**: 100% [^1]: [What will be the closing price per barrel for Brent crude oil on 1 April 2026?](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/5131-what-will-be-the-closing-spot-price-per-barrel-for-brent-crude-oil-on-1-april-2026) [^4]: [Current price of oil as of April 1, 2026 - AOL](https://www.aol.com/articles/current-price-oil-april-1-121329822.html) [^6]: [Current price of oil as of April 3, 2026 - Fortune](https://fortune.com/article/price-of-oil-04-03-2026/) [^2]: [Current price of oil as of April 6, 2026 - AOL.com](https://www.aol.com/articles/current-price-oil-april-6-125953995.html) [^5]: [Crude Oil - Price - Chart - Historical Data - News - Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil) [^3]: [Gasoline prices at gas stations across Europe are expected to rise sharply](/claim/rnk2OBzxIly5hk08gib9)