--- title: "HORMUZ BACK TO NORMAL? >Iran has resumed the blockade >One vessel was repo…" source: "https://x.com/PolymarketStory/status/2045477978163855599" platform: "X / Twitter" factual_accuracy: 74 overall_accuracy: null tags: ["strait of hormuz", "iran", "supply disruptions", "blockade", "polymarket", "prediction markets", "vessel attack"] --- # Source fact-check: HORMUZ BACK TO NORMAL? >Iran has resumed the blockade >One vessel was repo… Original post: https://x.com/PolymarketStory/status/2045477978163855599 Factual accuracy: 74% · Overall accuracy: Unknown ## Source post **Target post by @PolymarketStory** > HORMUZ BACK TO NORMAL? > > >Iran has resumed the blockade > >One vessel was reportedly hit > >Polymarket odds for traffic returning to normal by April 30 just crashed > > Smart wallets now expect disruption to last through month end https://t.co/aY8a7VCN4V ## Post analysis Post analysis will start after all claims are evaluated. ## Claims found (4) ### 1. Iran has resumed the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz — 95% Model: Kimi K2.5 · Checked on: 20/04/2026 · Detail: /claim/AZu2wthoxa75XNQDxvNC Based on verified claims and recent news reports, here is my analysis: **Reasoning:** - The Strait of Hormuz was initially closed in early March 2026 during the Iran war, then briefly reopened on April 17, 2026 following a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon[^1][^2][^3]. - On April 18, 2026, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy announced a dramatic reversal, stating the strait would be closed again until the United States lifts its naval blockade on Iranian vessels and ports[^2][^3]. - The IRGC issued a direct warning that "no vessel of any kind should move from its anchorage in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman, and approaching the Strait of Hormuz will be considered cooperation with the enemy, and the offending vessel will be targeted"[^3]. - More than a dozen commercial ships passed through the waterway during the brief reopening before Iran reimposed the blockade[^3]. - Reports confirm the IRGC fired on commercial ships attempting to transit the strait on April 18, 2026, validating that the blockade is actively being enforced[^3][^2]. **Overall validity**: 95% [^1]: [Iran threatens to again close Strait of Hormuz, if U.S. blockade continues - The Hindu](https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/iran-threatens-to-again-close-strait-of-hormuz-if-us-blockade-continues/article70876543.ece) [^2]: [More than 3,400 Iranians killed in war - as it happened - The Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2026/apr/18/middle-east-crisis-live-iran-warns-it-will-close-strait-of-hormuz-if-us-blockade-continues) [^3]: [Iran reasserts control of Hormuz Strait as Trump warns ... - Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/18/iran-reasserts-control-of-hormuz-strait-as-trump-warns-against-blackmail) ### 2. One vessel was reportedly hit — 100% Model: Kimi K2.5 · Checked on: 20/04/2026 · Detail: /claim/LW24TqRRKM7K4rDlw35h **Verification Assessment:** The claim that "one vessel was reportedly hit" is **accurate and verified** based on multiple news sources from April 19-20, 2026. - The Iranian-flagged cargo ship **Touska** was hit by the US Navy on April 19, 2026 in the Gulf of Oman/Straits of Hormuz area[^4][^5][^2][^1]. The USS Spruance, a US destroyer, fired on the vessel's engine room after it allegedly ignored warnings and attempted to breach an American blockade[^1][^5]. - US Central Command confirmed the engagement, and night-vision footage shows Marines from the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit fast-roping onto the immobilized ship to seize control after a 6-hour standoff[^1][^4]. - In response to the attack on the Touska, Iran fired drone strikes at US warships[^1][^2]. - There are also reports of an Indian vessel coming under attack in the Strait of Hormuz[^3]. **Overall validity**: 100% [^4]: [Video. Moment US navy fires on and seizes Iranian-flagged cargo ship](https://www.euronews.com/video/2026/04/20/moment-us-navy-fires-on-and-seizes-iranian-flagged-cargo-ship) [^5]: [US Navy Strike Disables Iranian Vessel Touska In Explosive Gulf ...](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/videos/international/on-cam-us-navy-strike-disables-iranian-vessel-touska-in-explosive-gulf-moment/videoshow/130383111.cms) [^2]: [Iran Fires Drones At US Warships After Navy ‘Blows Hole’ In Vessel, Seizes Touska Ship | 4k](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dcmWoyCQKZs) [^1]: [Iran-US Clash In Hormuz\! Marines Epic Swarming & Boarding Of ...](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/videos/international/iran-us-clash-in-hormuz-marines-epic-swarming-boarding-of-iranian-ship-after-6-hour-standoff/videoshow/130387517.cms) [^3]: [An Indian vessel reportedly came under att@ck in the Strait of ...](https://www.instagram.com/reel/DXT9hp4Db0x/) ### 3. Polymarket odds for maritime traffic returning to normal by April 30 have crashed — 95% Model: Kimi K2.5 · Checked on: 20/04/2026 · Detail: /claim/YisZUL2PmOjsae7u3DQw **Claim: Polymarket odds for maritime traffic returning to normal by April 30 have crashed** This claim is **ACCURATE**. **Reasoning:** - On April 8, 2026, Polymarket showed a 57% probability that Strait of Hormuz traffic would return to normal by April 30[^1] - By April 10, 2026, this probability had plummeted to just 22%[^2] - Current Polymarket data shows an 81.5% implied probability AGAINST traffic normalizing by April 30, meaning the "Yes" odds have effectively crashed to approximately 18.5% - The crash was driven by persistent post-ceasefire disruptions keeping daily vessel transits at just 7-20 vessels versus the typical 100-140 merchant ships (less than 10% of pre-crisis levels)[^2] - The 7-day moving average of transit calls required for a "Yes" outcome is 60 ships, which has not been achieved despite ongoing peace talks and sporadic reopenings\[extracted\] **Overall validity**: 95% [^1]: [Polymarket Predicts 57% Chance of Normalized Hormuz Traffic](https://phemex.com/news/article/polymarket-sees-57-chance-of-normalized-hormuz-strait-traffic-by-april-30-71531) [^2]: [Polymarket Predicts 22% Chance of Normal Strait of Hormuz Traffic by April End](https://phemex.com/news/article/polymarket-predicts-22-chance-of-normal-strait-of-hormuz-traffic-by-april-end-72307) ### 4. Smart wallets now expect the disruption to last through the end of April — 5% Model: Kimi K2.5 · Checked on: 20/04/2026 · Detail: /claim/stNTzmkSCQZ95GyWBVCX Based on my extensive search of both the claims database and web sources, I cannot find any verified information supporting the claim that "smart wallets now expect the disruption to last through the end of April." ##### Claim Analysis: - **No source found for this specific claim** - After searching multiple combinations of "smart wallets," "disruption," "end of April," and "2026," I could not locate any article, report, or statement containing this exact phrasing or concept\[1-73\]. - **Possible confusion with other "disruption" narratives in April 2026** - There are numerous documented disruptions expected to continue through April 2026, but none specifically related to "smart wallets": - **Flight disruptions**: Severe weather patterns are causing aviation disruptions expected to continue through April 2026, with analysts warning travelers to "expect intermittent pockets of disruption whenever new storm systems intersect with peak demand days"[^3][^1][^8] - **Supply chain disruptions**: A Sedgwick report found that "disruption is now the norm, not the exception" with trade policy, geopolitics, and cyber threats continuing through 2026[^2] - **Crypto wallet incidents in April 2026 do not match this claim** - Phantom wallet experienced a brief operational disruption on April 7, 2026 affecting token prices and balances, but this was resolved quickly, not expected to last through end of April[^10]. Leap Wallet announced it will shut down on May 28, 2026, but this is a planned sunset, not an ongoing "disruption"[^4]. - **"Smart money" vs "smart wallets" confusion possible** - There is significant discussion in April 2026 about "smart money" (whale/institutional investors) in crypto markets, with reports noting that "smart money tiers have started distributing" and showing "profound uncertainty keeping major stakeholders on the sidelines"[^6]. This could potentially be a misstatement or typo of "smart money" as "smart wallets." - **No evidence of ongoing smart wallet infrastructure disruption** - Reports on digital wallets in 2026 focus on growth (5 billion+ users globally), innovation (account abstraction, passkeys, gas sponsorship), and adoption trends - not operational disruptions expected to last through April[^5][^9][^7]. **Overall validity**: 5% [^3]: [Fresh Wave of Flight Disruptions Hits Five U.S. States](https://www.thetraveler.org/fresh-wave-of-flight-disruptions-hits-five-u-s-states/) [^1]: [Fresh April Flight Disruptions Ripple Across U.S. States](https://www.thetraveler.org/fresh-april-flight-disruptions-ripple-across-u-s-states/) [^8]: [Flight Delays Hammer Six Major U.S. Hubs in April 2026](https://www.thetraveler.org/flight-delays-hammer-six-major-u-s-hubs-in-april-2026/) [^2]: [Why Supply Chain Disruption Is Expected to Continue in 2026 - Supply Chain 24/7](https://www.supplychain247.com/article/why-supply-chain-disruption-is-expected-to-continue-in-2026) [^10]: [Phantom Cryptocurrency Wallet Grapples With Brief Operational Disruption Affecting Asset Displays | Crowdfund Insider](https://www.crowdfundinsider.com/2026/04/271829-phantom-cryptocurrency-wallet-grapples-with-brief-operational-disruption-affecting-asset-displays/) [^4]: [Cosmos Ecosystem Focused Leap Wallet To Shut Down Operations](https://www.crowdfundinsider.com/2026/04/271130-cosmos-ecosystem-focused-leap-wallet-to-shut-down-operations/) [^6]: [This Week in Crypto, Full Written Summary: W1 April 2026 - Santiment](https://app.santiment.net/insights/read/this-week-in-crypto-full-written-summary-w1-april-2026-10720) [^5]: [11 Payment Stats You Need to Know for 2026 - Juniper Research](https://www.juniperresearch.com/resources/blog/11-payment-stats-you-need-to-know-for-2026/) [^9]: [The way we pay: Trends to watch in 2026 – Intelligent CIO Middle East](https://www.intelligentcio.com/me/2026/04/02/the-way-we-pay-trends-to-watch-in-2026/) [^7]: [Crypto UX in 2025: How Account Abstraction and Smart Wallets Will Onboard the Next 100 Million Users April, 2026 | Cryptowisser](https://www.cryptowisser.com/guides/crypto-ux-2025-account-abstraction-smart-wallets)