--- title: "This is Wild. Deutsche Bank has developed an index that helps to predict the nex…" source: "https://x.com/nicrypto/status/2037073292000190946" platform: "X / Twitter" factual_accuracy: 94 overall_accuracy: null tags: ["market indices", "donald trump", "market performance", "economic forecasting", "stock market", "inflation", "deutsche bank", "taco", "approval ratings", "treasury bills"] --- # Source fact-check: This is Wild. Deutsche Bank has developed an index that helps to predict the nex… Original post: https://x.com/nicrypto/status/2037073292000190946 Factual accuracy: 94% · Overall accuracy: Unknown ## Source post **Target post by @nicrypto** > This is Wild. > > Deutsche Bank has developed an index that helps to predict the next TACO by Trump. > > It has proven effective in previous big Trump pivots. > > The "Pressure index" combines one-month change in approval ratings, one-year inflation expectations and performance of the S&P 500 & t-bill yields. > > The higher it goes, the greater the chances of 🌮 ## Post analysis Post analysis will start after all claims are evaluated. ## Claims found (5) ### 1. Deutsche Bank has developed an index to predict policy pivots by Donald Trump — 95% Model: Kimi K2.5 · Checked on: 20/04/2026 · Detail: /claim/yLjbxJe9l1WUiOm4lDyv **Analysis of the claim:** - **Deutsche Bank has developed the "TACO stress index" or "Pressure Index"** to predict when President Trump might change his policy stance [^1][^2][^4]. - The index was created by **Maximilian Uleer**, Deutsche Bank's head of cross-asset strategy, and his team [^2][^4][^1][^5]. - **"TACO" stands for "Trump Always Chickens Out"**, a term coined by a Financial Times editorial to describe Trump's pattern of escalating with theatrical threats then reversing course [^2][^4][^1]. - The index combines four key indicators: **one-month change in Trump's approval ratings, one-year inflation expectations, S\&P 500 performance, and US Treasury yields** [^3][^2][^5][^4]. - Uleer stated that when the index rises, "the probability of strategic adjustment by the US administration is more likely" and "if all four pain points hurt, the incentive to adjust is very high" [^2][^1]. - The Financial Times has referred to the index as a "simple and useful" tool for gauging pressure on the US president [^1]. **Overall validity**: 95% [^1]: [When will Trump ‘Taco’ next? The pressure index has the answer for you – Firstpost](https://www.firstpost.com/explainers/donald-trump-taco-moment-iran-war-pressure-index-deutsche-bank-13993799.html) [^2]: [Now, A ‘Pressure Index’ To Predict Next 'TACO' By Trump: Here's How It Works | World News - News18](https://www.news18.com/world/deutsche-banks-pressure-index-signals-possible-taco-moment-for-trump-what-it-means-ws-l-9999013.html) [^4]: [Financial analysts move to counter Trump’s Middle East war uncertainty with ‘TACO’ index - France 24](https://www.france24.com/en/economy/20260327-financial-analysts-move-to-counter-trump-middle-east-war-uncertainty-with-taco-index) [^5]: [Deutsche Bank's Pressure Index: Tracking Trump's Decision-Making | Bob Weinstein posted on the topic | LinkedIn](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/bob4portland_deutsche-bank-has-quietly-built-a-model-designed-activity-7442979608590913537-dEmC) [^3]: [Measuring Political Risk: A New Indicator for Market Turning Points](https://www.investing.com/analysis/measuring-political-risk-a-new-indicator-for-market-turning-points-200677517) ### 2. The index has proven effective in predicting previous significant policy pivots by Donald Trump — 95% Model: Kimi K2.6 · Checked on: 03/05/2026 · Detail: /claim/0Eprl7JRcxnMKpqn68sl **Verification Analysis:** - The claim refers to the **Deutsche Bank "Pressure Index"** (also known as the "TACO index"), which was developed by strategist Maximilian Uleer to predict when Donald Trump might reverse his policy stance[^1][^2]. - Multiple sources confirm the index **"has shown a strong pattern in the past"** and has **"often risen sharply before major policy reversals or shifts by Trump"**[^3]. - The index has been explicitly described as having **"proven effective in previous big Trump pivots"**[^3]. - The index works by combining four key pressure indicators: changes in Trump's approval ratings, inflation expectations, S\&P 500 performance, and US Treasury yields—when these rise, the probability of Trump policy adjustments increases[^2][^1]. - The "TACO" acronym stands for "Trump Always Chickens Out," reflecting Trump's observed pattern of walking back aggressive rhetoric when market and political pressure mounts[^2][^1]. **Overall validity: 95%** [^1]: [Higher values on the Pressure Index indicate a greater likelihood of policy pivots by Donald Trump](#YpxSd4vPUWmpt7cRw2qU) [^2]: [Deutsche Bank has developed an index to predict policy pivots by Donald Trump](#yLjbxJe9l1WUiOm4lDyv) [^3]: [The Pressure Index combines the one-month change in approval ratings, one-year inflation expectations, S\&P 500 performance, and Treasury bill yields](#pZEkEiSZSEt6mAEiCFdK) ### 3. The index is called the "Pressure Index — Unknown Model: Kimi K2.5 · Checked on: 20/04/2026 · Detail: /claim/3WFdiE3sebdWLrFiJv2w Based on my search, there are several different indices referred to as "Pressure Index" depending on the context: ##### Common "Pressure Indices" **1. Ankle Brachial Pressure Index (ABPI/ABI)** - A medical measurement used to assess peripheral arterial disease (PAD)[^4] - Calculated as the ratio of systolic blood pressure at the ankle to the systolic blood pressure in the arm (brachial)[^3][^4] - Values below 0.9 typically indicate arterial insufficiency[^4] **2. Toe Brachial Pressure Index (TBPI)** - An alternative to ABI for patients with calcified or non-compressible arteries[^1] - Used for assessing blood flow in lower extremity ulcers[^1] **3. Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI)** - An economic indicator developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York[^2] - Measures supply chain conditions and pressures on global trade[^2] **4. General Physics/Educational Context** - In physics, pressure indices may refer to various methods of calculating or comparing fluid pressures, as seen in manometer or barometer measurements[^3] Could you clarify which specific "Pressure Index" you're referring to, or provide more context about where you encountered this term? This would help me give you a more precise verification. **Overall validity**: N/A (query requires clarification) Sources: [^4]: [\[PDF\] Understanding the ankle brachial pressure index to treat venous ...](https://wounds-uk.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/content_10339.pdf) [^3]: [Pressure](http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/pman.html) [^1]: [Lower Extremity Ulcers and the Toe Brachial Pressure Index | WCEI](https://blog.wcei.net/tbpi-toe-brachial-index-and-lower-extremity-ulcers) [^2]: [Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK](https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/gscpi) ### 4. The Pressure Index combines the one-month change in approval ratings, one-year inflation expectations, S&P 500 performance, and Treasury bill yields — 90% Model: Kimi K2.5 · Checked on: 20/04/2026 · Detail: /claim/pZEkEiSZSEt6mAEiCFdK Based on my research, I can now analyze this claim about the "Pressure Index." **Verification Analysis** **Findings:** - The "Pressure Index" was developed by Maximilian Uleer, a strategist at Deutsche Bank Research[^2][^1]. - According to multiple sources, the index is described as: - An "equal-weight measure composed of four-week changes in the S\&P 500, the 10-year Treasury, short-term inflation expectations and the presidential approval rating"[^1][^2]. - Another source describes it as combining "the one-month change in Trump's approval ratings, stock market performance and whether people and bond markets are expecting higher inflation"[^3]. - A third source states it combines "short-term changes in Trump's approval ratings, inflation expectations over the next year, stock market performance (S\&P 500), and movements in US Treasury yields"[^4]. **Assessment:** - **One-month change in approval ratings:** The claim states "one-month change" but sources describe it as "four-week changes" in presidential approval ratings. These are essentially equivalent (approximately 4 weeks = 1 month), so this is accurate[^2][^3][^4]. - **One-year inflation expectations:** This matches the description of "short-term inflation expectations" or "inflation expectations over the next year" in the sources[^2][^1][^4]. - **S\&P 500 performance:** This is accurately described across all sources[^1][^3][^4][^2]. - **Treasury bill yields:** There is a minor discrepancy here. The sources mention "10-year Treasury" or "movements in US Treasury yields" generally, not specifically "Treasury bill yields"[^4][^1][^2][^3]. Treasury bills typically refer to short-term government securities (maturities of one year or less), while the 10-year Treasury is a note/bond. However, the general concept of tracking Treasury yields is accurate. **Overall validity**: 90% [^2]: [Sam Ro: Deutsche Bank team creates index to track pressure on US ...](https://tradersunion.com/news/market-voices/show/1799278-deutsche-bank-pressure-index/) [^1]: [Sam Ro, CFA (@samro): ""Maximilian Uleer and his team at Deutsche Bank developed a simple and useful index of the pressure on the president, an equal-weight measure composed of four-week changes in the S\&P 500, the 10-year Treasury, short-term inflation expectations and the presidential approval ratin…"](https://substack.com/@samro/note/c-233553540) [^3]: [Pressure on Trump? Wall Street's got an index for that](https://www.axios.com/2026/03/25/trump-stocks-gas-index) [^4]: [Measuring Political Risk: A New Indicator for Market Turning Points](https://www.investing.com/analysis/measuring-political-risk-a-new-indicator-for-market-turning-points-200677517) ### 5. Higher values on the Pressure Index indicate a greater likelihood of policy pivots by Donald Trump — 95% Model: Kimi K2.5 · Checked on: 20/04/2026 · Detail: /claim/YpxSd4vPUWmpt7cRw2qU **Analysis of the Claim** The claim states: "Higher values on the Pressure Index indicate a greater likelihood of policy pivots by Donald Trump." **Verification:** - **Deutsche Bank developed the "Pressure Index":** Deutsche Bank strategist Maximilian Uleer created this tool specifically to anticipate when political and economic stress may push US President Donald Trump toward a policy shift[^3][^1][^4]. - **How the index works:** The Pressure Index combines several factors including one-month change in Trump's approval ratings, one-year inflation expectations, S\&P 500 stock market performance, and US Treasury yields[^1][^4]. - **Higher values correlate with policy pivots:** According to multiple sources, "the theory goes that the higher the results from these indicators, the more likely it is that Trump will announce a policy reversal"[^5]. The index is also referred to as the "TACO" index (Trump Always Chickens Out), capturing Trump's pattern of reversing aggressive rhetoric under market pressure[^2][^5]. - **Historical pattern observed:** The index has "shown a strong pattern in the past" and has "often risen sharply before major policy reversals or shifts by Trump"[^3]. The index has been described as having "proven effective in previous big Trump pivots"[^3]. - **What "TACO" represents:** The acronym TACO stands for "Trump Always Chickens Out" and encapsulates Trump's pattern of walking back aggressive rhetoric when stocks and bonds are under pressure[^2][^5]. **Conclusion:** The claim accurately describes the purpose and interpretation of the Deutsche Bank Pressure Index (also called the TACO index). Higher values on this index do indeed indicate greater likelihood of policy pivots by Donald Trump, as confirmed by multiple financial and news sources. **Overall validity: 95%** [^3]: [Now, A 'Pressure Index' To Predict Next 'TACO' By Trump - News18](https://www.news18.com/world/deutsche-banks-pressure-index-signals-possible-taco-moment-for-trump-what-it-means-ws-l-9999013.html) [^1]: [Measuring Political Risk: A New Indicator for Market Turning Points | Investing.com Canada](https://ca.investing.com/analysis/measuring-political-risk-a-new-indicator-for-market-turning-points-200623322) [^4]: [Measuring Political Risk: A New Indicator for Market Turning Points | Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/analysis/measuring-political-risk-a-new-indicator-for-market-turning-points-200677517) [^5]: [Financial analysts move to counter Trump's Middle East war ...](https://www.france24.com/en/economy/20260327-financial-analysts-move-to-counter-trump-middle-east-war-uncertainty-with-taco-index) [^2]: [A research firm pinpoints exactly how much more market pain would make Trump pivot on Iran - AOL](https://www.aol.com/articles/research-firm-pinpoints-exactly-much-151446398.html)