Verification Analysis:

• The claim refers to the Deutsche Bank "Pressure Index" (also known as the "TACO index"), which was developed by strategist Maximilian Uleer to predict when Donald Trump might reverse his policy stance¹².
• Multiple sources confirm the index "has shown a strong pattern in the past" and has "often risen sharply before major policy reversals or shifts by Trump"³.
• The index has been explicitly described as having "proven effective in previous big Trump pivots"³.
• The index works by combining four key pressure indicators: changes in Trump's approval ratings, inflation expectations, S&P 500 performance, and US Treasury yields—when these rise, the probability of Trump policy adjustments increases²¹.
• The "TACO" acronym stands for "Trump Always Chickens Out," reflecting Trump's observed pattern of walking back aggressive rhetoric when market and political pressure mounts²¹.

Overall validity: 95%

1. Higher values on the Pressure Index indicate a greater likelihood of policy pivots by Donald Trump
2. Deutsche Bank has developed an index to predict policy pivots by Donald Trump
3. The Pressure Index combines the one-month change in approval ratings, one-year inflation expectations, S&P 500 performance, and Treasury bill yields