Based on my investigation, the claim has strong factual support. The evidence confirms that the escalating conflict in the Middle East, specifically the Iran war, is indeed largely responsible for recent fuel price increases.
Reasoning:
- Oil prices have surged dramatically since the Iran conflict began - Brent crude climbed from approximately $73 to $119 per barrel, representing a 65% increase, and front-month Brent futures hit a record monthly gain of 64% in March 2026
- The conflict has removed roughly 10-11 million barrels per day from global markets due to supply disruptions
- The Strait of Hormuz closure has created a physical chokepoint affecting approximately 20% of global oil supplies, taking offline significant production capacity
- U.S. gasoline prices have risen significantly - the national average reached roughly $3.98-$4.06 per gallon, up nearly $1 from a month ago and more than 17% since the start of U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran on February 28
- Diesel prices at the pump have surged by 25% on average across the EU since the war began, with some countries seeing increases of 35% (Spain)
- The EU's bill for imported fossil fuels has risen by €14 billion due to the conflict
- EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen explicitly stated that even if peace were declared tomorrow, prices "will not go back to normal in the foreseeable future"
Other contributing factors:
While other factors like Russia's temporary gasoline export ban (April-July 2026), seasonal demand increases for summer driving, and OPEC+ production decisions are also affecting prices, the Middle East conflict is the primary driver of the dramatic recent price spikes.
Overall validity: 90%